The last time that the Federal Reserve came with a large plan to help the economy, it $ 600 billion and triggered a gathering of 28 per cent of the stock market.
But if the Fed takes new steps, as many people expect, he does look them something like this. Locate the small ball, not a home run.
Investors are asking that the President of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has his strengths. The economy is in danger of sliding into recession, and the stock market took a hit this summer - down 10% since August 1.
And "Operation Twist," as observers Fed, call already in a blink of eye to economic history, probably will contribute to the economy and the stock market. Simply not a lot.
At best, Goldman Sachs economists say, it can increase economic growth by 0.5 point. This would help - after all, the economy has only increased at an annual rate of 0.7% in the first half of 2011.
But it is far from what should be for the economy in full health. In the decent years, the economy develops more than 3%.
Interest rates in the long term, at the same time, probably come more than 0.2 percentage point after any new action of the Fed. What people pay for loans on houses and cars falling almost as much.
And any humpbacks to the stock exchange will be probably short.
Michael Hanson, a senior Bank of America, Merrill Lynch economist and a former economist at the Fed, said that many investors say they believe that the Fed is cooking a major initiative because of the carnage on the stock market.
"I believe that they will get disappointed," he said.
The Fed's options are limited, economists say, because he has already used most of his ammunition.
Last fall, launched a program for the purchase of $ 600 billion in government bonds, with the objective of the reduction in interest rates in the long term. It was the second round of the Fed which is known as quantitative easing - nicknamed of2. Stocks returned to 28 per cent from August 2010, when Bernanke announced the program in April.
A study of the Fed attributed the reduced program its long run rate of 0.2 of a point. The yield on the 10 years of the Treasury Board, a point of reference for the loan throughout the economy rates, has fallen more than 0.5 percentage since of2 point was announced.
Yet again, to do so, may raise concerns among managers of money on inflation. Critics say that the Fed is essentially printing money when purchasing all these links and more money in the economy will eventually lead to higher prices.
Just that fear may trigger inflation. If fund managers are wear on inflation, they are more like to buy, oil, gold and other products, such as a hedge, by increasing their prices and make the cost of gas, food and other things higher for ordinary people.
Another concern is that a strong move by the Fed would be achieved with a stronger Republican reaction of the Congress.
In all cases, Hanson, explains, buying bonds is probably not the best remedy for the economy right now. Quantitative easing works better to stop the fall in prices, said, but overall consumer prices increased by 3.6% over the past year.
What the economy needs, many economists say, is another series of Government stimulus. Bernanke, Fonds International Monetary Chief Christine Lagarde and other top economists urged Congress to do so.
Instead of this, Republicans in Congress have demanded spending budget and Democrats went along.
The President Barack Obama proposed a plan of $ 447 billion the week last to stimulate the growth of employment, a mixture of tax cuts and new spending. Economists figure it could stimulate the economic growth of 2 percentage points and add 2 million jobs.
Hanson and others are skeptical that any proposal of the Obama will allow through Congress, however.
The first approached "Operation Twist" could come on 21 September, at the end of the next meeting of the Fed policy. FED-watchers it is named after a move by the Kennedy administration in 1961 to cut rates in the long term without touching the rates in the short term. At the time, the Chubby Checker Twist was the dance craze.
The Fed has set out the basic steps: they would buy Treasurys long-term with cash raised unloading Treasurys due in the next few years. Wall Street economists argue that the Fed could spend between $ 200 billion and $ 300 billion.
In theory, that should put pressure on interest rates to fall further and to encourage the people and businesses to spend more because the loan will be less expensive long-term.
"It is a way of low risk to help the economy," explains Thomas Simons, Jefferies market Economist.
But it is a low risk effort that will likely low rewards. The rate of interest on the note of 10 years of the Treasury, a point of reference for the loans through the economy, could not move.
And, in addition, there is little evidence of long-term interest rates are much good, say economists of Goldman.
Many economists and investors believe that the Fed move will give stocks a lift. When the Fed buys bonds, it drives up the prices, what makes stocks more attractive investment by comparison.
It is a target for the Fed because the increase in the stock market throws the confidence in the economy as a whole. The problem is that rates are already at historically low rates - and it has not prevented the fund managers of pouring money into Treasurys.
Is "cost of borrowing not really the problem", says Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
Before the financial crisis hit in 2008, fee encouraged lower loan usually companies to spend more and owners to refinance their mortgages. More now.
Companies are sitting on 2.9 billion in cash and afraid to hire people until demand picks up. And not enough people take advantage of low interest rates to turn around the housing market.
So should the Fed even try "operation Twist"?
"This is the best tool they have," said Ashworth. "I do not think, it's going to hurt, but I do not think it will help much, either.". Still, which does not mean that they should not try. »
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