Qadhafi's Death Leaves Libyan Oil Industry Uncertain

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The death of Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi marks the end of an era, both for the nation and its once-booming oil industry, choked off by the turmoil of the revolution. And as with prospects for the liberated Libyans to form a united, democratic government, the post-Qadhafi era begins with a sense of cautious optimism in the petroleum fields so essential to the nation's recovery.

Oil exports accounted for more than 95 percent of Libya's export earnings in 2010, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Since the fall of Tripoli in August, Libya's national oil company has moved quickly to restore output, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), but thus far most production—down to around 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day from a peak of about 1.6 million barrels daily—has been diverted to satisfy domestic demand.

Projections for the country's oil output have been revised slightly upwards, but questions remain about the extent of infrastructure damage caused by fighting, and power struggles within the nascent National Transitional Council could undermine efforts to get Libya's oil industry back online.

[Read: Qadhafi's Death Won't Mean End for U.S. Role in Libya.]

"If this leads to greater political clarity within Libya, and to a more stable operating and investment environment, then it may result in a more rapid restoration of the Libyan oil sector," David Fyfe, head of the IEA's oil industry and markets division, said in a statement. "However, many logistical, operational, and security-related challenges remain in that country, so we are not changing our underlying assumptions on Libyan production recovery for now. We still believe it could take many months for production to regain pre-crisis levels."

[Read: Politicians, World Leaders React to Qadhafi's Death.]

Most of the current oil production is derived from fields in the western and southern parts of the country, largely unaffected by fighting. While restoring production to pre-war levels may prove more difficult as the dust settles and damage is assessed, Libya has many advantages in its efforts to revitalize its oil industry.

For one, damage to the oilfields as a result of clashes between pro-Qadhafi forces and rebels appear to be relatively localized with the most damage affecting terminals and pipelines in the eastern side of the country. Production facilities in the western and southern regions have already started ramping up, according to Sarah Emerson, president of Energy Security Analysis Inc., who expects output to exceed 450,000 barrels by December.

"Now the question is as [production] continues to ramp up in excess of the refining requirements, then [Libya] can begin to export and that's where the money comes in," Emerson says. "[Qadhafi's death] is really incidental to the process. It starts a clock ticking, which says, 'Can you get the political stability together?'"

Emerson predicts conservatively that the country could see production of 800,000 to 1 million barrels by the end of next year, but full capacity very likely won't return until the end of 2013, she says.

[See photos of Muammar Qadhafi.]

The gradual re-entry of Libya—which holds Africa's largest proven oil reserves, according to the EIA—into global oil markets will likely ease pressure on supply and lower prices for refiners around the world.

"It's good news for the Europeans. It's good news for the East Coast United States," Emerson says.

mhandley@usnews.com

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Libyan PM says wishes Gaddafi had not been killed

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Libya's de facto Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mahmoud Jibril gestures at a news conference in New York in this September 23, 2011 file photo.

Credit: Reuters/Chip East/Files

LONDON | Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:53pm EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Libya's Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril said in an interview with the BBC on Saturday he wished former dictator Muammar Gaddafi had not been killed and instead had been put on trial for his crimes.

Gaddafi's body remained on public display in Libya on Saturday, bearing wounds assumed to have been inflicted by fighters who hauled him from a drain in his hometown Sirte.

"To be honest with you at the personal level I wish he was alive. I want to know why he did this to the Libyan people," the BBC quoted Jibril as saying in remarks made available ahead of broadcast early on Sunday.

"I wish I were his prosecutor in his trial, you know," he added. "Because this is the question which is in everybody's mind: Why? Did the Libyan people deserve what he did throughout 42 years of oppression, of killing, of everything?"

UN Human Rights Commissioner Navi Pillay has called for an investigation of the killing. Asked whether he would conduct a full investigation and allow an international team to monitor it, Jibril said:

"Yes, that would be absolutely okay with us you know, but for the body when it's buried, you know, according to Islamic rule ... when it's buried, it's buried.

"We got the coroner's report, I saw the body myself. I can testify that there were no bruises on his face or on his body."

Jibril acknowledged there had been "some limited violations of human rights" in Libya's revolution.

He also suggested Libya's interim authorities might welcome continued support from NATO beyond the end of October, when it plans to conclude its air campaign.

"I don't think there will be a need for that, but just in case," he said.

(Writing by Andrew Roche; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)

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Gaddafi gunmen, government forces clash in Libyan capital

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Smoke rises over the western side of Tripoli, October 14, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Suhaib Salem

By Barry Malone

TRIPOLI | Fri Oct 14, 2011 6:24pm EDT

TRIPOLI (Reuters) - Gunbattles between supporters of deposed leader Muammar Gaddafi and forces of the National Transitional Council (NTC) shook the Libyan capital on Friday, raising fears of an insurgency against the country's new rulers.

The clashes appeared to be isolated and involve only dozens of pro-Gaddafi fighters, but it was the first sign of armed resistance to the NTC in Tripoli since its rebel brigades seized the city and ended Gaddafi's 42-year rule in August.

Hundreds of NTC fighters in pick-up trucks shouting "Allahu Akbar" (God is greatest) careered toward the Abu Salim neighborhood, a repository of support for Gaddafi, and the two sides exchanged automatic and heavy machinegun fire.

The fighting in Tripoli coincided with prolonged battles in Sirte, where NTC forces are battling pro-Gaddafi fighters holed up in a small area of Gaddafi's home town.

Local people in Tripoli told Reuters that a group of up to 50 armed men had appeared in the Abu Salim district earlier in the day and chanted pro-Gaddafi slogans. NTC men said fighting also broke out in three nearby neighborhoods.

"Gaddafi told them in a message last night to rise up after Friday prayers," said one NTC fighter, Abdullah. "That's why these few people have come out and are causing this problem."

Since he went into hiding after rebel forces captured Tripoli on August 23, Gaddafi has released a number of audio recordings calling on loyalists to fight back.

Two Gaddafi supporters and one NTC fighter were killed in Friday's violence in Tripoli, NTC official Abdel Razak al Oraidi said during a press conference in the capital.

"Orders were issued to raise the state of alert to the maximum," Oraidi said. "Gaddafi supporters should give up their weapons. Those who do not do so will be considered terrorists."

NTC fighters dragged one man out of an apartment block in Abu Salim, a traditional bastion of support for Gaddafi. As he was kicked and punched, one NTC man tried twice to stab the prisoner only to be blocked each time by another NTC man.

The captured man had been armed with a rocket-propelled grenade, said NTC fighters. The interim government's forces have been criticized by human rights groups for their treatment of prisoners. Reuters saw at least two other captured gunmen taken away in pickup trucks being punched and kicked.

Dominated by apartment blocks, Abu Salim was the last part of the capital to fall to the NTC when its forces took Tripoli on August 23 after six months of civil war.

The NTC fighters were met by volleys of machinegun fire as they went from house to house searching for remaining pro-Gaddafi gunmen. Shooting died down later in the afternoon.

"Some Gaddafi cells came out on the streets with guns today after prayers but, as you can see, our forces have the situation under control," said a senior NTC official at the scene under heavy protection, Mahmoud Abdul Aziz.

"All families are safe. If Gaddafi is still at large we won't see peace but we will slay that beast."

A spokesman for the NTC in the eastern city of Benghazi dismissed Gaddafi's armed supporters in Tripoli as a "fifth column" trying to destabilize the country.

"The other thing I hear that is disturbing is that the fifth column has been doing some drive-by shootings around Tripoli today. These are loyalists trying to wreak havoc," he said.

Diplomats told Reuters that there were also drive-by shootings near the Radisson hotel, where some senior NTC officials and Western diplomats are staying.

SIRTE STILL HOLDING OUT

Gaddafi supporters are still holding out in Sirte, Gaddafi's Mediterranean coastal hometown in the center of the country, where a small pocket is battling on after weeks of fighting, and Bani Walid, a town south of Tripoli.

Government forces pushed tanks deep into Sirte on Friday to try to smash resistance by pro-Gaddafi fighters.

The mostly untrained NTC militia army has gradually tightened its stranglehold around Sirte in a chaotic struggle that has cost scores of lives and left thousands homeless.

The failure to seize the final Gaddafi bastions has also held up the attempt by Libya's new leaders to try to build a democratic government, a process they say will begin only after Sirte is captured.

NTC commanders say Gaddafi's diehard loyalists now only control an area measuring about 700 meters (yards) north to south, and around 1.5 km (a mile) east to west in a residential neighborhood comprising mostly apartment blocks.

"We are going to engage them with tanks and heavy artillery first. After that we will send in the pick-up trucks with anti-aircraft guns, then the infantry," said NTC commander Abdul Hadi Doghman.

The biggest obstacle to taking the town has been Gaddafi's snipers hunkered down in buildings.

Green flags, the banner of Gaddafi's rule, still fly above many of the buildings in Sirte. An occasional sniper shot zipped past government forces cleaning their weapons.

Gaddafi's encircled forces in Sirte have little hope of victory, but still fight on, inflicting casualties with rocket-propelled grenades, mortars and small arms.

Gaddafi himself is believed to be hiding somewhere in the vast desert of southern Libya.

FEAR OF REPRISALS

One NTC commander said Gaddafi's forces were no longer using heavier weapons and appeared to have lost their cohesion.

"We've noticed now they are fighting every man for himself," said Baloun al-Sharie, a field commander. "We tried to tell them it's enough and to give themselves up, but they would not."

NTC officers say Gaddafi loyalists fear reprisals if they surrender -- some captured fighters have been abused.

A Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) doctor at Sirte's Ibn Sina hospital estimated there are still some 10,000 people marooned by the fighting in the city of 75,000 residents. Many of those trapped are women or children and some need medical care.

"In the past few days, the patients haven't been able to receive proper medical care, due to a shortage of doctors and due to the lack of water," said Gabriele Rossi. "The wounds of some patients are really bad and very infected."

Amnesty International issued a report on Wednesday saying Libya's new rulers were in danger of repeating human rights abuses commonplace under Gaddafi. The NTC said it would look into the report.

(Additional reporting by Rania El Gamal and Tim Gaynor in Sirte; Brian Rohan in Benghazi and Ali Shuaid and Yasmine Saleh in Cairo; Writing by Joseph Nasr and Jon Hemming; Editing by Alastair Macdonald, Peter Graff and Mark Heinrich)

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Libyan interim government forces capture Sirte airport

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1 of 10. Smoke rises as anti-Gaddafi fighters fire from a tank during clashes with pro-Gaddafi forces, near the entrance of Sirte, September 28, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Asmaa Waguih

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AUDIO: The Valley of in the Libyan city of Sirte siege

September 29, 2011 to help stand 11: 32 GMT

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Libyan forces take Sirte airport

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29 September 2011 Last updated at 12:18 GMT There has been intense fighting in and around the city of Sirte Forces loyal to Libya's transitional authorities have taken the airport in the city of Sirte, the birthplace of fugitive leader Muammar Gaddafi.

A BBC correspondent says jubilant fighters moved through the partially destroyed terminal buildings tearing down symbols of the Gaddafi regime.

Gaddafi loyalists have put up stiff resistance in Sirte.

Two weeks ago transitional forces took the airport, a short distance from the city centre, but were then driven back.

The BBC's Jonathan Head says that this time they hope to hold it, despite facing continued rocket and gunfire from the other side of the runway.

Fighters arriving from the west and east say they will then mount a joint attack on Gaddafi loyalists, hoping to push them back towards the sea and to squeeze them into ever smaller areas of the city centre, our correspondent adds.

The airport is about 5km (3 miles) from central Sirte.

Forces loyal to Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) also recently seized Sirte's port.

Nato planes have been carrying out air strikes in the area against military targets including ammunition storage facilities.

Sirte and the city of Bani Walid are the last major areas under the control of Gaddafi loyalists, and both have seen heavy fighting in recent days.

Col Gaddafi's whereabouts are still unknown, though NTC officials have said they believe he may be hiding in Libya's southern desert.

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My unexpected trip to a Libyan hospital

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24 September 2011 Last updated at 13:12 GMT It was a strange night.

I was woken by two Filipina women in starched nurses' uniforms at the foot of my bed. One was holding a razor.

A little later the lights blinked on again.

A Ukrainian nurse was now gripping a large syringe.

"What are you doing?" I asked.

She shrugged. "This is not your concern."

Let me rewind a little.

A day earlier, I was on the edge of the Libyan desert, outside a town called Bani Walid.

Rebel fighters were racing past in their usual, chaotic manner.

They had been trying to storm the town for days. But Col Gaddafi's forces have bigger guns and better discipline.

Journalists kept edging forwards a kilometre or two, then tearing back after coming under mortar, rocket or sniper fire.

Anti-Gaddafi forces are still facing strong opposition in Bani Walid

It had been the same pattern for a week.

Abruptly, we heard news that a BBC colleague - the brave Lebanese journalist Mohammad Ballout, had been shot just ahead of us.

A single sniper's bullet had killed one man, injured another, and finally come to a stop in Mohammed's chest.

It was serious. But not life-threatening. He has had surgery now and is doing well.

At the time - as dusk fell and we pulled back towards Tripoli - it seemed at best inappropriate to make too much of the stomach pains that had been bothering me for a couple of days and preventing me from eating.

Still, the next morning I was feeling worse and - with the looming prospect of a few nights camped in the desert - I decided to find some antibiotics at a local clinic to sort me out.

Wartime spirit

We were recommended a hospital linked to the National Oil Corporation, in a suburb of the capital.

There were armed guards outside, a noisy crowd in the reception. But down the corridors beyond, I had my first glimpse into a different Libya.

From Our Own Correspondent is on Thursdays at 1100 BST and Saturdays at 1130 BST on BBC Radio 4 and weekdays on BBC World Service

It was a place of wealth, and order, and lots of foreigners.

There were Russian surgeons. A chatty Macedonian nurse. Dozens of Filipinos, and a formidable Scottish matron.

In English, even the Libyans had a broad range of accents.

"I studied in Cardiff," explained the first doctor to have a look at me, as he gently suggested that my guts were not the problem.

All the foreigners seemed to have been in Libya for years.

"Sixteen now," said Maria, the Macedonian.

The pay was good. The well-funded hospital served oil workers rich and poor. Expat life was cloistered but enjoyable.

Of course all that changed when the fighting began.

During the battle for Tripoli last month, the casualties were crowded onto every inch of floor.

I surrendered, and stared at the ceiling as the surgical masks loomed over me”

End Quote

The neighbourhood itself came under heavy fire as Col Gaddafi's loyalists withdrew from the city.

"It was terrible," said Maria. "I can show you the bullet holes upstairs."

But all the staff stayed on and by the time I arrived, a month later, a wartime spirit of camaraderie, generosity and optimism still filled the hospital.

I, on the other hand, was feeling trapped and defensive.

The doctors, absurdly I thought, seemed to think it was my appendix. They wanted to operate fast.

I clung to the belief that I must have eaten some dodgy seafood and just needed a few pills.

But the evidence was building solidly against me, and by the next morning I could see that my obstinacy was being interpreted as a lack of faith in their hospital and judgement.

And so, I surrendered, and stared at the ceiling as the surgical masks loomed over me.

I think I remember a Russian anaesthetist, trying to get me to sing along with him. Then the words and the room turned to glue and vanished.

Surgery souvenir

A man called Salahaddin woke me late that evening.

He was on crutches, and had limped in from the next room for a chat.

Salahaddin was 28 years old, a doctor, and a patient.

He had been in the desert outside Bani Walid too. He was in charge of an ambulance crew bringing out the wounded.

A week earlier, he said, his vehicle had been hit by gunfire - a bullet went through his back and out of his leg, shattering his pelvis on the way.

Salahaddin kept smiling, and my grogginess started to feel like bad manners.

During the rebellion, he said, he had treated Col Gaddafi's soldiers during the day at a clinic in central Tripoli, and then slipped out at night to help rebel casualties in the city.

"Now, it is all changed," he grinned. "It is nearly over."

He turned and inched slowly back to his room.

The next morning, the Libyan surgeon walked in with a "told you so" smile. He was brandishing my badly swollen appendix in a plastic jar.

Nurse Maria explained that Libyans like to take home any missing bits to show their relatives and to prove they had not been malingering.

I left mine behind.

How to listen to From Our Own Correspondent:

BBC Radio 4:

A 30-minute programme on Saturdays, 1130.

Second 30-minute programme on Thursdays, 1100 (some weeks only).

Listen online or download the podcast

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Read more or explore the archive at the programme website.

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Libyan NTC forces thrust deep into Gaddafi home town

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1 of 7. Forces loyal to Libya's interim rulers fire heavy machine guns as smoke rises from Muammar Gaddafi's hometown Sirte September 24, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Anis Mili

By Alexander Dziadosz

SIRTE, Libya | Sat Sep 24, 2011 9:32pm EDT

SIRTE, Libya (Reuters) - Libyan interim government forces backed by NATO warplanes have mounted their deepest thrust into Muammar Gaddafi's home town of Sirte, getting as close as half a kilometer from the center of the deposed leader's coastal stronghold.

Gunfire could be heard coming from the town center and black smoke rose as National Transitional Council (NTC) forces massed in Zafran Square on Saturday and moved up tanks and mortars. Pick-up trucks mounted with machineguns and loaded with fighters raced in.

Field medics said two NTC soldiers had been killed and more than 20 wounded in the fighting against pro-Gaddafi forces.

"They have snipers above the mosques, above the buildings. They're using the houses and public buildings," NTC fighter El-Tohamy Abuzein told Reuters from his position in Zafran Square.

The NTC assault plan has divided Sirte into three zones. "They took area number one and they are fighting in area number two and they are holding there until morning," NTC commander Fathi Bafhaaga told Reuters.

Reuters journalists at the scene said it was the deepest NTC fighters had got into Sirte, but it was not possible to verify whether the NTC was holding onto its gains overnight.

Taking Sirte would be a huge boost for the NTC as it tries to establish credibility as a government, and a devastating blow for Gaddafi, widely believed to be on the run inside Libya.

NATO, whose warplanes played a vital role in the six-month war that toppled Gaddafi, said its planes had hit a number of targets in Sirte in the previous 24 hours, including an ammunition depot and an anti-aircraft gun.

It said in a statement the air attacks had been mounted to protect civilians from Gaddafi forces inside the town.

"Among the reports emerging from Sirte are executions, hostage-taking, and the calculated targeting of individuals, families, and communities within the city," NATO said.

Previously, NTC forces have retreated from Sirte and the other final Gaddafi stronghold, Bani Walid, after poorly organized assaults met fierce resistance from his loyalists.

Though NTC forces have tightened their grip in the past few days on southern oasis towns that sided with Gaddafi, that progress has been overshadowed by unsuccessful efforts to take the last strongholds.

NTC commanders say their advance on Sirte has been hampered by the presence of large numbers of civilians, many of whom have fled in the past week.

A Gaddafi spokesman has accused NATO of killing several hundred civilians in strikes on Sirte. Communications have been largely cut off since the fall of the capital Tripoli last month.

"FORBIDDEN" WEAPONS FOUND

NTC leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil said on Saturday interim government forces had found suspected internationally banned weapons near the towns of Sabha and Wadan, but he gave no details about them.

"There are weapons believed to be internationally forbidden, and they are under our control," he told a news conference at the NTC's headquarters in its eastern Benghazi base.

"We will seek help from local experts and the international community to get rid of these weapons in a suitable way."

The NTC, the political leadership of the rebel movement that rose up against Gaddafi's 42-year-rule and drove him from power with support from the West and several Arab nations, faces a challenge in trying to impose its authority across Libya.

It said last week it would move to Tripoli only after its forces were in full control of Libyan territory, contradicting an earlier pledge to move the interim administration from Benghazi around mid-September.

Raising a new challenge, Abdelraouf al-Kurdi, a representative of fighters from a Tripoli district, said arms seized from sites in the capital had been taken to other parts of Libya by fighters who filled the city to overthrow Gaddafi.

Interim government forces operate in disparate units based on their home towns, with little overall command.

NTC officials have said Gaddafi used mercenaries from sub-Saharan Africa to bolster his ranks during the war.

Tanks were seen moving beyond the gate toward Sirte and Reuters journalists said NTC forces got to within 40 km of the city and were planning to hold that position after nightfall.

"We are coming for you, wild-haired one," fighters chanted, referring to Gaddafi.

On Thursday, the NTC said it had taken full control of Sabha, which was the traditional base for Gaddafi's own tribe. About 800 km (500 miles) south of Tripoli, it had been occupied by fighters loyal to him.

The NTC says it also controls Jufra, to the northeast of Sabha, and the nearby oasis towns of Sokna, Waddan and Houn.

The manhunt for Gaddafi, who has been in hiding for weeks occasionally issuing audio messages through Syrian-based Arrai TV, is drawing closer to its target, NTC officials say.

(Reporting by Goran Tomasevic south of Sirte, Sherine El Madany east of Sirte, William Maclean and Joseph Logan in Tripoli, Emad Omar in Benghazi and John O'Donnell in Brussels; Writing by Barry Malone; Editing by Ralph Gowling)

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