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Showing posts with label Greek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greek. Show all posts

Sunday, January 29, 2012

The Greek cloud

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23 January 2012 Last updated at 10:00 GMT Greek anti-austerity protest - file pic Austerity is taking a heavy toll on Greek living standards In October 2009 George Papandreou won the Greek election. Within days he discovered that the country's deficit was not 6.7% but 12.7%. So began a crisis that has spread to other countries and has come to dominate the EU and the eurozone.

It tells you something that in the third week of 2012 Greece is still not sorted. It will dominate both Monday's meeting of eurozone finance ministers and next week's European summit.

It is a story simply told. Austerity did not work, neither did the first bailout. The economy shrank and the debt mountain grew. The Germans insisted that if Greece was to have a second bailout then private investors had to take losses in order to slash the country's debts.

Talks over how to achieve that are on a knife edge. The target is to cut 100bn euros (£83bn) from Greece's debt mountain of 350bn euros. Only then might Greece be able to see its debt-to-GDP ratio fall to 120% by 2020.

So private investors are being asked to swap their current bond holdings for new ones worth half the value. That would involve them accepting losses of over 50%.

The sticking point is the interest paid on the new bonds, bearing in mind they will not mature for 30 years. If the rate is too low - say less than 3.8% - the investors will cry foul and insist the deal is no longer voluntary. If it isn't voluntary then Greece is in default.

The Germans and the IMF want a lower figure. Those talks will continue this week.

Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:AAA-rating The best credit rating that can be given to a borrower's debts, indicating that the risk of borrowing defaulting is minuscule.

The expectation has to be of a deal. The EU, IMF and Germany fear a default more than anything else and the investors know that they will blink first.

Now if there is an agreement some are saying a major part of the eurozone crisis would have been fixed.

Francesco Garzarelli from Goldman Sachs said that in the event of a massive write-down "a systemic danger in the eurozone which comes from the weak link that is Greece will be removed".

Germany has insisted that nearly a third of Greek debt be written off before agreeing to lend Greece more bailout money.

Sick man of Europe

That brings us back to the real economy. In Greece it is expected to shrink by 6% this year and 3% next. There are some green shoots. Tourism is up and so are exports, but mainly the economy is in free-fall. Last year it missed its target for reducing its deficit. So this year a further 7bn euros in savings will have to be found.

Once again there will be open resistance on the streets and sullen resentment in the community. Reforms to open up the labour market and perhaps boost growth have stalled. Greece increasingly resembles a patient on permanent life-support; it is not being cured.

And that brings us to Italy. When it comes to European leaders Mario Monti is the poster boy of the moment. He is applauded and praised wherever he goes.

He has set about reducing Italy's deficit with vigour. Taxes have been increased, pensions reformed and the sales tax has gone up to 23%. Like in Greece he is making budget cuts as the country is heading back into recession.

He knows none of this will work without growth. So he has gone to battle with those closed professions like taxi drivers and pharmacists and lawyers. Suddenly he is meeting resistance.

Mario Monti has warned the rest of Europe of a powerful backlash which could turn the Italian people against Europe and Germany, the main architect of austerity. It is by now a familiar story of a leader bound into a monetary union having to change the culture of his country in order to try and regain competitiveness.

Germany's deep pockets

Ultimately the Italian leader does not believe that austerity alone will work. The answers, in his view, do not lie in Italy but elsewhere in Europe. He has revived the call for common European debt, so called eurobonds. He also wants to increase the size of the European Stability Mechanism, the zone's permanent bailout fund which will be up and running later this year.

In the end it comes back to wanting Germany to take on Europe's debts and to bankroll further the rescue fund. For the moment Berlin is saying "no" to both ideas, but many of Europe's economies are flashing "warning signs".

What is providing a breathing space was the decision by the European Central Bank to lend half a trillion euros to Europe's banks at a rate of just 1% over three years.

Some banks have started using the money to buy up bonds of countries like Italy at around 6%. It's good business for the banks and it is lowering the borrowing costs of countries at risk. It buys time, but does not address the real problem of countries locked into years of grinding austerity.

Elections are often revealing. Politicians choose a narrative that will play well with the people. Sometimes the script is honest; sometimes less so.

Francois Hollande, the front-runner to become the next French president, set out his stall yesterday. He has chosen to run against the markets. "My true adversary does not have a name, a face or a party. He never puts forward his candidacy but nevertheless he governs. My true adversary is the world of finance."

Big ideas may follow, but Europe is facing profound questions beyond saving the euro: Why does Europe have such sluggish growth? Is Europe's welfare state sustainable? How will work be found for millions of young people unemployed? Is the EU over-regulated?

In the end Europe's real economy will have to be fixed.



Source BBC



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Monday, January 23, 2012

Greek focus for eurozone meeting

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23 January 2012 Last updated at 12:16 GMT Euro notes and coins The talks could be crucial to the future of the euro Eurozone finance ministers are to meet later, with the Greek debt crisis likely to dominate proceedings.

On the agenda will be what form Greek debt restructuring should take as part of a second bailout package for Athens.

It comes after negotiators for private creditors left Greece without a deal to write off some of the country's debts.

Separately, IMF boss Christine Lagarde has said the eurozone needs economic growth and bigger financial firewalls to resolve debt issues.

Deadline

The Institute of International Finance (IIF), which represents Greece's creditors, said a technical team would remain to work further on the details.

European leaders agreed in principle last year that private lenders would voluntarily write off 50% of their loans to Greece, but private creditors still need to agree to the terms of the deal.

A 130bn euro ($168bn; £108bn) rescue package from the EU and IMF is crucial if Greece is to meet its next debt repayment deadline in two months.

Without the second bailout Greece will not be able to pay back 14.5bn euros in maturing bonds in March.

If Greece defaults on its debts it could cause further economic havoc in the eurozone, and undermine the common currency.

'Solvency crisis'

Christine Lagarde met German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Monday.

After the meeting, Ms Lagarde said that the eurozone needed a "larger firewall" to prevent the debt crisis spreading.

"Without it, countries like Italy and Spain that are fundamentally able to repay their debts could be forced into a solvency crisis by abnormal financing costs," she said.

She suggested "folding" money left in the eurozone's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, into the new European Stability Mechanism bailout fund, when the latter comes into force some time this year.

She also said the European Central Bank should "provide the necessary liquidity support to stabilise bank funding and sovereign debt markets."

And she repeated her view that "across-the-board, across-the continent, budgetary cuts will only add to recessionary pressures".

'Market wolf'

A leading Australian economic report warned on Monday of the wider global implications of a eurozone meltdown.

The quarterly Deloitte-Access Economics Business Outlook said it was "marginally" more likely the eurozone would manage to get through its current problems.

For the time being, the report said, the European Central Bank looked able to keep the "market wolf from the sovereign debt door" but that the region was bound for recession.

The euro hit its highest level in nearly three weeks against the dollar on Monday, at $1.2998 on hopes of positive signs from the finance ministers' meeting.

And the common currency was up 0.4% against the pound at 83.42 pence.



Source BBC



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Saturday, October 29, 2011

After Greek Debt Deal, U.S. Futures Jump

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Home > Politics & Policy > After Greek Debt Deal, U.S. Futures Jump

October 27, 2011 Print

NEW YORK — U.S. stock futures are jumping after European leaders agreed on a deal to slash Greece's debt.

Banks agreed to take 50 percent losses on the Greek bonds that they hold, and European leaders agreed to strengthen a rescue fund to protect Italy and other large European economies. Worries that a European country could default had dragged down global stocks.

Reports later Thursday will show how strongly the U.S. economy grew between July and September, as well as how many Americans joined the unemployment line last week.

Two hours ahead of the opening of trading, Dow Jones industrial average futures are up 206, or 1.7 percent, to 12,008. S&P 500 index futures are up 25.80, or 2.1 percent, to 1,263.20. Nasdaq 100 futures are up 47.50, or 2 percent, to 2,374.

Tags:Greece, debt, Europe, Associated Press

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Thursday, September 29, 2011

Japan may help Greek debt bailout

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27 September 2011 Last updated at 03:53 GMT Consumer walking in front of a stock board in Tokyo Japanese shares have been hit hard by the debt crisis in European economies Japan has said that it would consider being part of a global plan to help bailout Greece.

Finance Minister Jun Azumi said eurozone countries needed to come up with a rational plan to ease global concerns.

Mr Azumi's comments come a day after the Nikkei 225 index fell to a two-and-a-half year low amid fears that the debt crisis may slow global growth.

However, on Tuesday, the Nikkei rose, giving further proof of volatility.

"If there is a scheme that is based on a firm process, involves a reasonable amount of money and could provide the world and markets with a sense of security regarding a Greek bailout, I would not rule out the possibility of Japan sharing some of the burden," Mr Azumi was quoted as saying by the Reuters news agency.

The finance ministry confirmed those comments to the BBC.

Multiple factors Continue reading the main story
Japanese banks and insurance companies are big investors in stock markets and if the Nikkei continues to plunge, it will send the domestic financial system in turmoil”

End Quote Masaaki Kanno JP Morgan Analysts said Japan's willingness to consider sharing some of Greece's bailout burden stemmed from the fact that it wanted to ensure stability in the region.

Europe is a key market for Japanese exports and there are concerns that if a solution to the debt crisis is not found soon, it may hurt growth and dent demand for Japanese goods.

"If the financial turmoil spread from Europe to the rest of the world, Japan will not be immune," Masaaki Kanno of JP Morgan told the BBC.

Growing uncertainty in Europe may also see investors flock to traditional safe havens such as the yen.

That may result in the Japanese currency strengthening even further against the US dollar and the euro.

A strong currency not only makes Japanese goods more expensive, but also hurts the profits of companies when they repatriate their foreign earnings back home.

At the same time, the crisis has resulted in sharp falls at the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Mr Kanno added that if the falls continued, it could be detrimental for the Japan's economy.

"Japanese banks and insurance companies are big investors in stock markets and if the Nikkei continues to plunge, it will send the domestic financial system in turmoil."

Eurozone governments are in talks to discuss how best to stop the crisis spreading from Greece to the rest of the continent.



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